Do you believe in miracles? Well, all those managers who were long the
QE-sensitive darlings of Financials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary into
the month can breath a collective unchanged sigh of relief - thanks to last
week's Draghi drag higher. The Energy sector managed a stupendous 4.9% gain on
the month. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all finished about 1-1.4%
higher on the month (while Dow Transports ended -2.3%) as we came close
to some Hindenberg Omens in the last few days. Today's market felt like the
start of a sell-the-news day as we leaked back to the edge of the Friday cliff
in S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) - with an after-day-session-close snap down
to catch-down to where risk-assets had broadly been biased all day - amid huge
volume (leaving ES below its recent swing highs and Fibonacci levels).
Commodities generally slid lower but WTI led the way ending down over 3%
from Friday's close. Gold, Silver, and Copper all slid even as USD slid
lower too. Treasury yields fell back retracing about half of the post-Draghi
sell-off. VIX ended testing 19% into the close, up almost 1vol as the
term-structure flattened ahead of the events of the next couple of
days. The massive rip in volume at the close (and 5pt drop in
ES) suggest plenty of short-term exits ahead of the fun-and-games of the next
two days and certainly Treasuries were sending similar derisking signals.
Major end-of-month volume flush at the close to leave ES at the cliff's edge once more... the 150,000 ES contracts in the last 2 minutes of the day-session equates to around $10.3bn notional - not bad eh?
and on the month...
and sectors were saved by last week's rip...
but today seemed like a reversion day in commodities as they WTI, Gold, and Silver all converged lower into month-end - though managed to close higher.
but stocks generally reverted lower to catch up to the general derisking in risk assets today...
and across asset classes, Treasuries outperformed and stocks and gold basically recoupled after two disconnects...
We can only assume so many were wrong-footed into uber-bullish positions post the EU Summit that there was some serious window-dressing needed to recover from a nasty month.
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: GLD has seen no positive inflows since 6/18 and yet GLD prices have risen during this period with July seeing redemptions of about 10,000 shares...
Bonus Bonus Chart: Financials were extremely widely dispersed on the month from BofA -10.5% to Goldman +5.3% with the XLF (Financials ETF) up a measly 0.2%...
Major end-of-month volume flush at the close to leave ES at the cliff's edge once more... the 150,000 ES contracts in the last 2 minutes of the day-session equates to around $10.3bn notional - not bad eh?
and on the month...
and sectors were saved by last week's rip...
but today seemed like a reversion day in commodities as they WTI, Gold, and Silver all converged lower into month-end - though managed to close higher.
but stocks generally reverted lower to catch up to the general derisking in risk assets today...
and across asset classes, Treasuries outperformed and stocks and gold basically recoupled after two disconnects...
We can only assume so many were wrong-footed into uber-bullish positions post the EU Summit that there was some serious window-dressing needed to recover from a nasty month.
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: GLD has seen no positive inflows since 6/18 and yet GLD prices have risen during this period with July seeing redemptions of about 10,000 shares...
Bonus Bonus Chart: Financials were extremely widely dispersed on the month from BofA -10.5% to Goldman +5.3% with the XLF (Financials ETF) up a measly 0.2%...
No comments:
Post a Comment