EUR/USD Elliott Wave Count for March 22, 2012

 
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Market Overview
Yesterday the EUR/USD pair was trading downwards. During the European session the major started a descending movement to the 1.3215 level (50 EMA support). Therefore, during the New York session we could observe the euro – U.S. dollar pair slightly higher before price continued with the bearish mood to the new daily low – to 1.3177, EUR/USD did not manage to hold this level and at the end of the New York session we could observe the price returning back to 50EMA.Today during the Asian session we could observe an upward move to 1.3250. Today the EUR/USD pair is expected to test 1.3100 level. We saw bad news from Europe today.
Still it is also necessary to consider the data concerning the GBP Retail Sales m/m , EUR Industrial New Orders m/m and USD Unemployment Claims that can affect the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.3119 (S2) 1.3160 (S1) 1.3185 (PP) 1.3226 (R1) 1.3267 (R2) 1.3292 (R3) 1.3333
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis
The EUR/USD pair has finished i wave (colored blue) of the bigger (iii) wave (colored green) in the point 1.3284. Presently we can observe end of ii wave (colored blue). Proceeding from our wave rules and considering that the wave iii will retrace 161.8% of i wave, we can define the potential targets with the help of Fibonacci extension (1.3003-1.3284-.1.3133) with first Take Profit at level 1.3409 (100% of the wave i) and second Take Profit at 1.3583 (161.8% of the wave i). For Stop Loss we can use 1.3100 support level.
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin an upward movement. That is why long positions at levels 1.3200 with Stop Loss at 1.3100,Take Profit 1.3409 and Take Profit 2 at 1.3583 are recommended.