Forecast International Predicts Tremendous World Growth for Gas Turbines Over Next 15 Years
NEWTOWN, CONN., Dec. 10, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- For stock market investors, one of the world's best kept secrets is the outlook for production of gas turbines through 2028 and beyond. Forecast International, which continually tracks and forecasts the outlook for these energy conversion machines, announced today that its latest calculations reveal a phenomenally growing market for gas turbines of many sizes and configurations, driven my several major re-equipment cycles.
On the aviation side, gas turbines are now the sole means of propulsion for all but very light aircraft. Technological breakthroughs have produced a new breed of turbines with fuel economies of up to 20% and much higher reliability. These factors, combined with the drop in the cost of aviation fuel, have greatly stimulated a re-equipment cycle for the airlines, for which 90% of operating costs are fuel related.
With their eyes on new growth in route structures and more rapid turnarounds, the airlines are placing orders at a record pace for thousands of new transport aircraft. On the military side, a world re-equipment cycle is underway for fighters of many types, as thousands of current generation fighters will be replaced by stealthier and more combat-effective new fighters over the next 20+ years. Lockheed Martin's F-35, powered by the Pratt & Whitney F135 engine, will lead the market.
The net effect of these developments for the aviation gas turbine market will be the impressive production of at least 231,000 gas turbine engines valued in excess of $1.07 trillion through 2028. In terms of units produced, Pratt & Whitney Canada will lead the market with 16.1%, followed by CFM International with 11.3%. However, in terms of value market share, CFM international will garner some 32.1% (primarily with its dominant position aboard the 737 Max and A320neo twins), followed by GE Aviation with 18.4% and Rolls-Royce with 15.3%.
On the industrial and marine side, several stimuli are at work building a companion market for a related but different series of gas turbines of many sizes. World demand for electrical power continues to rise, particularly in the rapidly developing Asian countries. In many countries, high-polluting coal-burning power plants are being shut down in favor of large, more efficient gas turbines to handle baseload power requirements, while smaller GTs serve as auxiliary power sources for peaking power needs. Another market driver – the U.S. – is now the world leader in natural gas production and is rapidly advancing to the No. 1 spot as an oil producer. The result of this has been thousands of miles of new pipelines crisscrossing the continent. Many of the new power plants will thus be able to function more cleanly by burning natural gas straight off the pipelines. At the same time, hundreds of pumping stations are being equipped with medium-size gas turbines to perform mechanical drive compression and pumping duties, and to serve as a source of auxiliary power generation.
As a result of this demand, Forecast International's analysts are now projecting that 48,000+ industrial gas turbines valued at over $619 billion will be produced through 2028. However, in terms of market share, the production of industrial and marine gas turbines, many of which are mammoth-sized, will line up quite differently than production of their aviation cousins. Capstone Turbine, which produces only very small GTs, will produce 24.2% of the units, followed by Solar Turbines with 17.9%. But in terms of value of production, General Electric, in several divisions, is expected to dominate world production with 35%, followed by Siemens with 15.38% and Alstom with 9.71%.
Forecast International, Inc. (www.forecastinternational.com) is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. Forecast International's resources and extensive base of experience can be readily adapted and efficiently focused to fulfill a broad spectrum of civil and military Consulting and Special Research requirements. To arrange an interview with Forecast International's editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President, Research & Editorial Services (203) 426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com. Questions regarding sales or consulting may be directed to sales@forecast1.com or consulting@forecast1.com.
On the aviation side, gas turbines are now the sole means of propulsion for all but very light aircraft. Technological breakthroughs have produced a new breed of turbines with fuel economies of up to 20% and much higher reliability. These factors, combined with the drop in the cost of aviation fuel, have greatly stimulated a re-equipment cycle for the airlines, for which 90% of operating costs are fuel related.
With their eyes on new growth in route structures and more rapid turnarounds, the airlines are placing orders at a record pace for thousands of new transport aircraft. On the military side, a world re-equipment cycle is underway for fighters of many types, as thousands of current generation fighters will be replaced by stealthier and more combat-effective new fighters over the next 20+ years. Lockheed Martin's F-35, powered by the Pratt & Whitney F135 engine, will lead the market.
The net effect of these developments for the aviation gas turbine market will be the impressive production of at least 231,000 gas turbine engines valued in excess of $1.07 trillion through 2028. In terms of units produced, Pratt & Whitney Canada will lead the market with 16.1%, followed by CFM International with 11.3%. However, in terms of value market share, CFM international will garner some 32.1% (primarily with its dominant position aboard the 737 Max and A320neo twins), followed by GE Aviation with 18.4% and Rolls-Royce with 15.3%.
On the industrial and marine side, several stimuli are at work building a companion market for a related but different series of gas turbines of many sizes. World demand for electrical power continues to rise, particularly in the rapidly developing Asian countries. In many countries, high-polluting coal-burning power plants are being shut down in favor of large, more efficient gas turbines to handle baseload power requirements, while smaller GTs serve as auxiliary power sources for peaking power needs. Another market driver – the U.S. – is now the world leader in natural gas production and is rapidly advancing to the No. 1 spot as an oil producer. The result of this has been thousands of miles of new pipelines crisscrossing the continent. Many of the new power plants will thus be able to function more cleanly by burning natural gas straight off the pipelines. At the same time, hundreds of pumping stations are being equipped with medium-size gas turbines to perform mechanical drive compression and pumping duties, and to serve as a source of auxiliary power generation.
As a result of this demand, Forecast International's analysts are now projecting that 48,000+ industrial gas turbines valued at over $619 billion will be produced through 2028. However, in terms of market share, the production of industrial and marine gas turbines, many of which are mammoth-sized, will line up quite differently than production of their aviation cousins. Capstone Turbine, which produces only very small GTs, will produce 24.2% of the units, followed by Solar Turbines with 17.9%. But in terms of value of production, General Electric, in several divisions, is expected to dominate world production with 35%, followed by Siemens with 15.38% and Alstom with 9.71%.
Forecast International, Inc. (www.forecastinternational.com) is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. Forecast International's resources and extensive base of experience can be readily adapted and efficiently focused to fulfill a broad spectrum of civil and military Consulting and Special Research requirements. To arrange an interview with Forecast International's editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President, Research & Editorial Services (203) 426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com. Questions regarding sales or consulting may be directed to sales@forecast1.com or consulting@forecast1.com.
Will Alibrandi, Power Systems Analyst Phone: (203) 426-0800 Fax: (203) 426-4262 Web site: www.forecastinternational.com E-mail: Forecast International, Inc. 22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA
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