Volume was nothing to cheer about after a long weekend, but it seemed the
forced buy-ins and stop-runs remain as stocks pushed on to new highs even as the
USD ended unchanged from Friday's close and Treasury yields up 2-3bps. A
1.2% rally in S&P futures from Friday's lows as Copper and
Silver were slammed lower (former on China 'tightening' and latter on equity
short-covering margin unwinds we suspect). In general risk-assets were not
playing along with stocks' exuberance but as the after noon played on and stocks
saw at most a 1 pt reversal, so bonds pushed higher in yields - recoupling risk
and stocks towards the close. VIX led the way - testing
Friday's decoupled lows around 12.08%. Credit markets remain underperformers but
tracked stocks higher on the day. Oil prices - seemingly the
only thing that could potentially foil the current rally - pushed around
1% higher from Friday's close, as Gold fell back modestly to $1605.
AAPL ended the day unch - with a huge volume spike at the close, as
homebuilders suffered post-NAHB.
VIX closed at its lowest since April 2007.
S&P futures did see some huge deltas today as we broke to new highs - the highest since before the sell-off into the fiscal-cliff debate - but the up-trend remains...
S&P 500 futures had their biggest open-to-close rise of the year.
Indices just kept chugging higher all day long... with the main surge once again coming on a stop-run above previous highs...to fuel the rally
but in general TICK never accelerated until the close when it went a little crazy exuberant...
The USD ended the day unchanged from Friday's close (as did JPY) while GBP and CAD weakened notably (and AUD strengthened)...
and Oil outperformed once again... post EU Close...
Is oil all there is left to spoil the party? (via Credit Suisse)...
As is clear on the right, Capital Context's CONTEXT risk model suggested the non-equity part ofthe world was not buying in to the strength - but as the afternoon wore on so bonds and FX carry joined the party and Oil's strength also pushed up risk. ETFs (left) remained well synced...
though risk-assets recoupled short-term, they remain notably decoupled in the medium-term...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
VIX closed at its lowest since April 2007.
S&P futures did see some huge deltas today as we broke to new highs - the highest since before the sell-off into the fiscal-cliff debate - but the up-trend remains...
S&P 500 futures had their biggest open-to-close rise of the year.
Indices just kept chugging higher all day long... with the main surge once again coming on a stop-run above previous highs...to fuel the rally
but in general TICK never accelerated until the close when it went a little crazy exuberant...
The USD ended the day unchanged from Friday's close (as did JPY) while GBP and CAD weakened notably (and AUD strengthened)...
and Oil outperformed once again... post EU Close...
Is oil all there is left to spoil the party? (via Credit Suisse)...
As is clear on the right, Capital Context's CONTEXT risk model suggested the non-equity part ofthe world was not buying in to the strength - but as the afternoon wore on so bonds and FX carry joined the party and Oil's strength also pushed up risk. ETFs (left) remained well synced...
though risk-assets recoupled short-term, they remain notably decoupled in the medium-term...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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