There have been many scary parabolic charts associated with Spain
demonstrated here over the past
few weeks. Today, the market is focused on the following line that goes from
the lower left to upper right, which if not parabolic yet, may be getting there
soon. The chart shows Spanish banks' bad loan ratio, which at 8.16% of the total
€1.763 trillion in loans, or €143.8 billion, is the first time loans
more than 3 months overdue were greater than 8% since October 1994.
Indicatively bad debt levels were about 1% in the years prior to the collapse of
the country's property market. Furthermore, with the rapid deterioration in
Spain in the past 2 months, expect this chart to leg up substantially in June
when the series catches up to April real time data, most likely crossing double
digit territory. But for now the fact that of the country's roughly €1.4
trillion in GDP, over 10% in bank debt is "bad" and surging, should be
a sufficiently loud wake up call.
No comments:
Post a Comment