Supercycle Elliott Wave Solar Cycles, Recessions and The Roaring 2020's!

Supercycle Elliott Wave

This is about the Elliott Wave Principle and a alternate wave count in Supercycle Degree. Most all wave counting practiced today is in the Grand Supercycle degree pattern! We run all wave counting one degree lower and, with every Supercycle Degree Bull Market also comes a Supercycle Degree Bear Market. As of August 2011, I have been switching most all wave counts down one more degree. Cycle Degree is one Degree Lower than Supercycle degree.

Solar Cycles, Recessions and The Roaring 2020's!

Here is just a small look at how recessions follow Sunspot Cycle peaks. I do have studies that have gone back over 100 years, which EWI published in their books.

Market Analysis for the New Millennium: Ground-breaking Essays by 12 Authors - Elliott Wave International

This is another look at the cycles and market tops and bottoms.

Supercycle Elliott Wave: Solar Cycle #24 and the stock market connection!

In the posting above I talk about solar cycle #24 topping in early 2013 and that the stock market could be in a low at that time. In the Collins study they show how recessions are most likely to happen just shortly after a solar cycle top has completed. That chart pattern researched back 100 years and it has not failed to produce some kind of a recession every time. So anytime after, or around the 2013 cycle #24 top we should experience another recession. If we have declining peaks in solar activity between two peaks, then this also shows that we are in major bear markets . The 1960 Solar peak was the highest on record and the next one was a lower peak, perfectly reflecting a major bear market. The same thing is happening now as the expected 2013 peak is much smaller than the the 2000 peak in solar activity.

This is the new solar cycle picture and I think that includes all of the March sunspot activity. Sunspot activity has just exploded in the last month or so as many times there were 3-4 sunspots active during any day. The last spike in sunspot counts pretty well sent the graph vertical!

I am sure you have heard the expression "you never know", "you never can tell" or that you cannot predict the future and therefore never can tell when a crash or a major decline in the markets is ready to turn. Yes, I agree with all those statements and the main reason that it cannot be done is that the majority of all investors, analysts, forecasters alike all have one thing in common, We all think, act and forecast in a Linear fashion. Even scientists get in on the act of forecasting in a linear fashion as the AGW crowd has clearly demonstrated. Any forecast ever made about the markets by the majority has always been wrong as they have linear thinking as the basis of forecasting. In reality the past ran in cycles and the future will continue to run in cycles, as the saying goes, "history repeats itself". All the scientists and forecasters that study cycles, are far more reliable and far more believable than the experts that work on consensus forecasting.

There are many cycles and the most important cycle is the 20 year cycle, and the big question is what time did it start and what time may it end? Another huge cycle that also unfolds around the 20 year cycle is the solar cycle and its complete magnetic reversal in a 22 year period. Cycle #23 hit a top in 2000 and ended at a bottom in 2008. When cycle #23 finished, Solar cycle #24 started at that time and it was one of the least active bottoms in many years. Solar cycle #24 should end some time 11 years from its beginning. Many solar cycles have not been exactly 11 years but on the average have lasted about 10.8 years. The solar cycles will be easy to track as we have huge amounts of tracking devices that do exactly that on a 24-7 basis. The Supercycle 4th wave I am working fits very well in the 22 year solar cycle which should end sometime in 2021-2022.

If we have a date from which to start and end the 20 year cycle then we can get closer in other time sequences and forecasts. We are presently 1/2 the way through the 20 year cycle as 2010 is completed. May 28th is the date that this 20 year cycle started in 2000 and should end Dec 21 2020. The next cycle would end in Oct, 21, 2040. The first part of the 20 year cycle has about a 10 year cycle that still is in the growth stage but the second part of that cycle contains the contraction phase. Most all years ending with a 2 are associated with bottoms in cycles such as 1932,1942, 2002, 1921-22, 1962, even 1982 had a bottom, making the next bottom in 2012 highly likely. Years ending in 7 are linked to money and stock market panics, such as 1987, 1997, 1906-07 and now late 2007. Then if this pattern stays true we should have another stock market money panic or liquidity crunch close to or before 2017. It may just be a major correction and then resume for another few years before the markets decline into 2021-2022. Years ending with a 5 usually have a bullish stock market associated with them like 1985,2005 and 1945 and other years making 2015 a year which could be very bullish. We have very good market records spanning 300 years, going all the way back to the early 1700's which is the basis of any Supercycle wave counts that I do. Any forecasting I do is also based on the 100 year cycle and if we pretend that we are in 1911, as 1911 was also in the middle of the 20 year cycle, then we can have a fairly good basis to make non linear forecasts with. At this time I still feel that the Roaring 2020's are still ahead of us and even when we get there, the public will not know it!