March NFP big miss
at just 120K. Unemployment rate declines from 8.3% to 8.2%. Futures slide, for
at least a few minutes before the NEW QE TM rumor starts spreading. The
household survey actually posted a decline in March from
142,065 to 142,034. Considering Birth Death added 90K to the NSA number,
the actual number was almost unchanged. And as always, as we predicted when Goldman
hiked its NFP forecast yesterday from 175K to 200K saying "if Goldman's
recent predictive track record is any indication, tomorrow's NFP will be a
disaster", Goldie once again skewers everyone. Finally, Joe LaVorgna's +250,000
forecast was just 100% off... as usual.
The unemployment rate drops to 8.2% for one simple reason: the number of people not in the labor force is back to all time highs: 87,897,000.
Birth Death:
The unemployment rate drops to 8.2% for one simple reason: the number of people not in the labor force is back to all time highs: 87,897,000.
Birth Death:
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