As we have pointed out before, the ongoing market tension is so palpable it
can be cut with a knife. As a reminder, institutional investors are now about as
"all
in" as they can be, spinning narratives about economic growth, housing
bottom, and general improvement (despite all facts to the contrary), while
waiting for one simple thing: to get retail investors buying
again. Because unless the Fed or ECB pumps another trillion or
so in new liquidity there is simply no new purchasing money.
However, as we have shown time and again, retail investors have had it
with stocks, and are dumping
domestic equity funds hand over fist despite the near vertical equity ramp
fest, while money going into ETFs, that traditional straw man used by fund flow
apologists, has been going almost exclusively into bond-related
vehicles. Yet one group of investors has not been waiting to find out which
way this temporary stalemate will end (because either the buyers' money will end
first, or retail will throw in the towel and after a 20% artificial,
liquidity-driven move to the upside will capitulate and become the latest
bagholder). That group is corporate insiders: the people who know the
fundamental prospects of their companies better than anyone,
and certainly better than the propaganda media or the always wrong Wall Street
sell side analyst brigade. And as the chart below demonstrates, insiders are now
out and selling in record quantities.
Chart: Bloomberg
Chart: Bloomberg
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