From Bloomberg
Wells Fargo Advisors examined return for stocks over next 10 yrs when the start date is three years into a bull market and found in prior cycles that stocks have risen a median of 162%; implies S&P 500 can reach ~3700 by 2022.
- Firm examined five prior cycles starting in year 3 of bull market: Chief Equities Strategist Stuart Freeman in note yesterday
- 1973-1983, 1977-1987, 1983-1993, 1985-1995, 1993-2003
- 2006 cycle only 6 yrs old, posting 12% return
- 10-yr returns range from low of 57% for ’73-’83 cycle to high of 194% for ’85-’95 cycle
- "What we are suggesting is that there is much evidence the last 40-plus years of later-cycle returns following the first upleg in cyclical bull markets and periods of mid- cycle meandering
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