JPM Expects Fed To Acknowledge Inflation Tomorrow As Hawks Continue Dissenting

 

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/12/2012 18:23 -0400

• Unemployment

While largely uneventful to most, the tomorrow's FOMC statement redline to the January one will be promptly scoured by algos everywhere for even the tiniest mention of the word inflation, as that will not only push back any hopes for a quick QE episode, but may temper expectations that ZIRP will last through 2014 (as the shaky 3 Year auction earlier indicated). And if JPMorgan's Michael Feroli is right, inflation is precisely what will be Bernanke's oh so observant mind tomorrow. In which case at 2:15pm watch out: the Chairsatan may just pull the punchbowl away as the Hawkish dissent mounts... if only until the market has a downtick of course, which will threaten to destroy the ever flimsier hollow house of ponzi cards, or something, and the chief fireman comes scrambling back with the firehose spraying trillion dollar bills.
From JPM:

We expect a relatively uneventful outcome following tomorrow's FOMC meeting. We do not expect any balance sheet actions, nor do we anticipate any strong signalling that such actions are likely to occur at a subsequent meeting. Because tomorrow's meeting is a one-day meeting there will be no new economic projections or funds rate projections, nor will there be a post-meeting press conference. To the extent there is any news it is likely to come from changes in the wording of the FOMC statement. We believe there will be only a few minor tweaks to the statement. Perhaps the most significant is a change to the wording of the inflation discussion, to acknowledge that headline inflation has been pushed higher by energy prices. There could be some fairly small adjustments to the growth description: a little more cautious about consumer spending, and maybe a touch more upbeat on the labor market, while still noting that the unemployment rate remains elevated. We expect no change to the late 2014 rate guidance. Lacker dissented at the last meeting and will probably do so again tomorrow. A case could be made that Williams will cast a dovish dissent, or even Raskin or Tarullo for that matter, though we think it's more likely that we see no dovish dissents tomorrow.