The pre-election barrage of "six-sigma" economic beats continues, with today
the trophy going to Housing Starts, which soared by a whopping 15% from a
revised 758K to 872K. The highest forecast called for
a 800,000 print with consensus expecting an increase to 770,000K. Did we say 6
sigma? We meant a 9 sigma beat to consensus. The numbers being thrown
about are so ridiculous they are almost credible in their political talking
point ridiculousness. Expect this outlier printing to continue at least until
the election. In the meantime, prepare for a barrage that housing start soared
to the highest since July 2008. Looking inside the numbers, the
print for single family rose to 603K from a revised 543K, while multi-family
houses increased to 260K from 208K. The geographical breakdown is as follows
Northeast down 4K to 75K, Midwest modestly higher to 143K from 134K, West a
little more higher from 169K to 203K, and the biggest surge was in the South
from 376K to 451K. At this point the best one can hope for is for a return to
some normal data reporting after the election, because it is now obvious that
every data series will be skewed and 'seasonally adjusted' substantially higher.
Curious why BofA charge-offs are already soaring thanks to the Housing Bubble
2.0? That's why.
Housing start in context:
Housing start in context:
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